Next six months?(Before june2010 ?)

These days everyone is talking about possible “Major Political Change’ in Pakistan. Analysts are talking about shift of power from presidency to parliament; Shuffling in cabinet due to NRO cases reopening after 28th November. Almost all the political analysts are betting for exit of Asif Ali Zardar by the exception of Nazir Naji and Najam Sethi (who disagree either out of hope! or due to having an insight?).I know it’s always easy to bet against survival of a coalition government but in present situation I think NRO revocation, kickback reports in foreign media for military deals, Anti government vibes coming from local media even though all might be true but have been timed for something bigger and is related to Geo Political and Nuclear significance of Pakistan.

Kickbacks in military deals, corruption in third world countries were never considered unusual but than so was the American involvement in different regions. Apparently Uncle SAM learned it from the failure of Germans and Russians expansion plans that instead of directly ruling the country, rule through its own Military and politicians by keeping them at American payroll.




A very alarming report has come through Dr.Shahid Masood (Meray mutabiq fame).In a recent episode he quoted famous journalist “Seymour Hersh” about presence of American Nuclear security agency on Pakistani soils in spite of so many confirmations through USA foreign office positive statements about Pakistan’s Nuclear Command and Control system’s effectiveness. Considering repute of the journalist (please check a note on him at the end of the blog) let’s assume that American security agency members are actually here but what for? What has changed which made the Americans get closer to Kahoota? Could it be without Military consent? Answer to these and so many other questions are likely to come in the near future and I reckon that it will all be clear before June 2010.Whatever the Americans are up to, either its about Pakistani Denuclearization or restricting Chinese trade through Gwader or both but execution of any anti Pakistani plan cant take place without controlling Army and Political setup. My personal opinion is that under an elected government regime with a balance of power it is not possible so either Americans would keep corrupt political entities in power and try to gain control through them (Rehman Malik’s effort to control ISI by interior ministry) or by supporting such Military elements which don’t retaliate against American interests (Likes of Musharaf).



Under present circumstances it doest seem to be happening through scattered political power and an autonomous Judiciary so the next best alternative is a Caretaker government(based upon technocrats or second line politicians)which would come under the notion “to cover for Political vacuum as a result of corrupt politicians exit(either due to resignation or Assassination). It would last for a period of 2-3 years (enough time to execute American plans i.e. establishing permanent bases in more sensitive and strategic areas and having a share in trade through Gwader)and then leave but I am afraid than there would not be much left to struggle for or to rebuilt.



Please share your opinion about what do you see happening in the next six months. Remember that his blog is a discussion plat form through which we can exchange ideas and opinions. Please extend this address http://inamarif.blogspot.com to your mailing and text lists in order to expand the community.


A note on Seymour Hersh: Seymour "Sy" Hersh made his name and career by reporting in 1969 on the U.S. court martial of Lt. William Calley, the commanding officer in what became known as the My Lai Massacre, an incident in South Vietnam where U.S. soldiers tortured and killed nearly 500 civilians. Hersh won the Pulitzer Prize for the story and became one of the most famous journalists in the country. During the 1970s he reported for The New York Times, creating more controversy with reports on the covert operations of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. Consistently controversial, Hersh has written books that tell of Henry Kissinger's secret bombing of Cambodia, John Kennedy's wild and reckless White House, Israel's behind-the-scenes attempts to get nuclear weapons and General Barry McCaffrey's behavior during the Gulf War. Held in high esteem by many, he is also considered by some to be an unreliable rogue. In 2001 he came under fire by the Pentagon (again) for reporting on military actions in Afghanistan; in 2004 he reported in The New Yorker that Iraqi prisoner abuse at Abu Ghraib jail in Baghdad, which focused initially on low-ranking U.S. soldiers (including Lynndie England), could be traced to orders by Donald Rumsfeld -- orders President George W. Bush had been informed of ahead of time. The White House denied the allegations, and Hersh was himself once more the subject of headlines. In August of 2004 he published the book Chain of Command: The Road From 9/11 to Abu Ghraib, based on his magazine reports.

Is it Zardari’s time for Ghardari?

These days every Pakistani is amazed at the way MQM has gained position in popular politics and attention by the media through their stance on NRO and Asif Zardari’s resignation. The way Mutehda leaders are responding, it appears that they themselves were not expecting outcomes of their decisions to be this positive for seeking attention at the National level and especially by the National level media which always appeared apprehensive about Mutehda’s Politics due to its rough behavior in Karachi towards private channels (Attack on Aaj T.V office and blocking of private channels transmission through cable operators etc).


Even though it is still too early to expect that MQM would be able to increase its National assembly seats from outside Sindh, Kashmir and Gilgit in the near future but they seem to be learning tricks of the trade (National level politics).Mutehda has done real damage to Pakistan People’s Party which now is unable to ENCASH Bhutto family’s sacrifices due to major corruption scandals and spilling mismanagement. Many ministers have joined their co-chairman by making commitments which they did not honor (after all getting rid of load shedding was not written in Holy grail!) and by getting involved in immoral (America’s visit dance party scandal) and corruption scandals (Raja Ashraf’s rental power plants along with a long list of Mr.Zardari’s friends involved with Land Mafia and Banking industry scandals).The silliest mistake of all was trying to get direct control over Intelligence agencies ( failed effort to merge ISI with interior ministry and use of IB funds to finance coup against PML(N) in Punjab.

At this stage Triumphs seem to be heading towards PML (N) which seems to be preferable by Army over Pakistan People’s Party (Shahbaz Sharif and Caudhry Nisar’s recent meeting with Army chief).Main stream media also acknowledges its popularity and in the memory of masses there are no major corruption scandals but a principled stance for restoration of judiciary and party’s position against NRO.


To add more to the misery of People’s Party leadership ,all the tools for controlling judiciary seem to be gone and party co-chairman wants to survive with a team which never believed in him (actually avoided him when Ms Bhutto was alive due to his never ending appetite for Free Rides and Lunch).

Some people say that Pakistan People’s party has always survived against adversaries and will still survive but in my opinion this time the fortress has been set on fire by the ones who were supposed to protect it and the only way out is to change the commander and bring in someone interested in saving the Castle (and in making it a fortress).

Is Iran involved in Baluchistan?

Couple of days back there was a suicide attack on Iranian security forces in which several people lost their lives and Iranian National ego was severely hurt. Immediately Irani Interior minister and President accused Pakistan for the incident. My personal opinion is that this incident took place in response to Iranian underground activities in Balochistan. Question is why? why would Iran be interested in Balochistan? In my humble opinion it is Gwader which reduces strategic importance of Iranian and other ports.

Chahbahar in south western Iran is likely to become the strongest competitor of Gwadar to transit trade for Afghanistan, Central Asia and China. Chahbahar is considered as the economic gateway to the world due to its location on the Oman Sea shore outside the Strait of Hormuz. It shortens the inland link from the sea to CIS countries by up to 100Km. Chahbahar provides the shortest link across to Central Asia and the Middle East. Even Bandar Abbas and Busher sea ports are said to be economically accessible for cargo.

GWADER,Located at the entrance of the Persian Gulf about 390 nautical miles east of the Gulf of Hormuz and about 234 nautical miles west of Karachi. 80 kms from the Iranian border. It is about 320 kms from Cape al-Hadd in Oman and situated in close proximity to the Iranian ports of Chahbahar and Bander Abbas. Strategically located outside the sensitive area of the Straits of Hormuz, a major conduit for global oil supplies in the region. The port came to worldwide focus during the first Gulf War when shipping lines were confronted with security issues. Gwadar, close to the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, is located on the southwestern coast of Pakistan.

Dubai is the hub of business not only for Gulf but also for rest of the world including Europe, United States, Africa, China and Central Asian States, simultaneously. The gulf region is facing many political conflicts at the moment and huge disturbances in the current administrative structure are expected in the coming years. In such a scenario, a substitute of Dubai is essential to be located before the crisis hits the finances of millions. The substitute shall be a nearest point probably, to ensure continuous supply line of oil from Gulf to the outer world. Fortunately, Gwadar proves to be the nearest and infact more cost-effective substitute of Dubai.

China is emerging as a super economic power of the world in the recent years. Despite occupying a huge area of world's land, it doesn't have any port of hot waters, which can be used the whole year. The distance of Chinese industrial approach to the Shinghai port is approximately 16000 km and the sea travel of 2-3 months is additional. This costs them a lot in the form of taxes and duties as well. As compared to this, Gawadar port is only on a distance of 2500 km from China and the port is working for the whole year because of the hot waters here. Therefore, the interest of China in the development of Gawadar port is infact in the interest of Chinese economy.

The central Asian states, after the independence from USSR, are trying to develop their economies. These states are land locked and Karachi was expected to provide them the services through Afghanistan. For the purpose, a highway from Peshawar to Karachi was constructed but due to Afghan crisis, this line couldn't be established. The Afghan situation is till not clear, so, Gawadar being near to Iranian border will provide port facilities to Central Asia as well.


So it is evident that GWADER and Chahbahar are competitors and their simultaneous existence would reduce Bargaining power of both the countries with economic entities which are interested in trading around this region.This aspect becomes even more significant as Iran is not and never was in good books of Europe and America and with the development of Gwader these regions would't be pressurised to improve relations with Iran and on the other hand due to Gwader,Iran will not be in a position to negotiate with the mentioned regions in a dominant fashion.

Another fact is that Except for Bhutto era,Pakistan was never really close to Islamic countries of Shia Belt (Iran,Iraq,Lebanan etc)and its strategic alliance has always been with Sunni countries like Saudia,Turkey etc so in case of a major strategic issue there is not much historical or sentimental affection to hold back a direct clash.

Lets hope that both of these counties can join together and make a greater use of their strategic location.

What is you opinion?
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Information sources for this post:
Rupee News
Gwader fact sheet
CSS Forum

United States of Pakistan???

Everyday when we wake up till the time we sleep, media keeps on reminding us about the fact that how insecure our lives are. Experts keep on discussing that what went wrong, what is going wrong and what will go wrong. These experts appear on one after another channel, explaining incidents and discussing events. A Lot is highlighted about possible changes in Map of Pakistan, Indian intervention in Balochistan, Growing hatred against Punjab by other provinces (so possible split of the larger province),Terrorism, corruption, Growing crimes due to economic reasons and only God knows the limit of what else more.

I was in my mid teens when I used to hear that Bengalis got separated because Bhutto did not accept their election success but with the passage of time I came to know that there were economic reasons too like Bengalis were not getting their share through the income of Jute and the resource allocation was not suitable for the large population of Bengal. Circumstances have not changed even now as I observe economic reasons for an unstable Pakistan. For example if our national resources are split on the basis of population than Punjab gets the largest share, If major chunk of budget is allocated to Defense expenditure than it goes to Army which seems to be dominated by Punjabi population. NWFP demands royalty for water reservoirs built in their area; Balochs demand the same for Natural Gas (along with control over Guwader port), Sindhis are not happy about water resources distribution etc. The hatred has reached to an extent that a Baloch leader was saying it in a T.V interview that if Pakistan army can use American weapons to kill Balochs than why can’t Balochs use Indian support to retaliate.

Pakistan has four provinces and there are separation movements in three of them

Balochistan Liberation Force (BLF)
Giyay Sindh
Tahreek e Taliban Pakistan

Unlike 1971 this time it’s more than Indians who are involved in Pakistan. Indian involvement in Balochistan is carefully discussed but rumors have it that Iran, Saudia and America are also directly involved in our part of the world. This intervention is ignored and or welcomed due to economic reasons. Four provinces are like brothers fighting at the dinner table for having larger share out of the limited food. These brothers are seeking foreign support without realizing that they will be kicked off the table once the family split is completed. The tragic part in our national story is not resource limitation but the fact that we are all Muslims and sharing and sacrificing is part of our religion.

Where would this lead us to? Would NWFP be added to Afghanistan as an AFPAK POLICY by Americans? Would Balochistan be handed over to China to ensure execution of AFPAK POLICY? Would Sindh join India? Would Punjab survive without any water sources and eventually unite with Indian Punjab? Is it all real? Or its just media celebrating its freedom which it never had in the history of this Nation? Is our existence actually at stake? Would Pakistan split and remaining part of it would survive as an American colony?

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