Couple of days back there was a suicide attack on Iranian security forces in which several people lost their lives and Iranian National ego was severely hurt. Immediately Irani Interior minister and President accused Pakistan for the incident. My personal opinion is that this incident took place in response to Iranian underground activities in Balochistan. Question is why? why would Iran be interested in Balochistan? In my humble opinion it is Gwader which reduces strategic importance of Iranian and other ports.
Chahbahar in south western Iran is likely to become the strongest competitor of Gwadar to transit trade for Afghanistan, Central Asia and China. Chahbahar is considered as the economic gateway to the world due to its location on the Oman Sea shore outside the Strait of Hormuz. It shortens the inland link from the sea to CIS countries by up to 100Km. Chahbahar provides the shortest link across to Central Asia and the Middle East. Even Bandar Abbas and Busher sea ports are said to be economically accessible for cargo.
GWADER,Located at the entrance of the Persian Gulf about 390 nautical miles east of the Gulf of Hormuz and about 234 nautical miles west of Karachi. 80 kms from the Iranian border. It is about 320 kms from Cape al-Hadd in Oman and situated in close proximity to the Iranian ports of Chahbahar and Bander Abbas. Strategically located outside the sensitive area of the Straits of Hormuz, a major conduit for global oil supplies in the region. The port came to worldwide focus during the first Gulf War when shipping lines were confronted with security issues. Gwadar, close to the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, is located on the southwestern coast of Pakistan.
Dubai is the hub of business not only for Gulf but also for rest of the world including Europe, United States, Africa, China and Central Asian States, simultaneously. The gulf region is facing many political conflicts at the moment and huge disturbances in the current administrative structure are expected in the coming years. In such a scenario, a substitute of Dubai is essential to be located before the crisis hits the finances of millions. The substitute shall be a nearest point probably, to ensure continuous supply line of oil from Gulf to the outer world. Fortunately, Gwadar proves to be the nearest and infact more cost-effective substitute of Dubai.
China is emerging as a super economic power of the world in the recent years. Despite occupying a huge area of world's land, it doesn't have any port of hot waters, which can be used the whole year. The distance of Chinese industrial approach to the Shinghai port is approximately 16000 km and the sea travel of 2-3 months is additional. This costs them a lot in the form of taxes and duties as well. As compared to this, Gawadar port is only on a distance of 2500 km from China and the port is working for the whole year because of the hot waters here. Therefore, the interest of China in the development of Gawadar port is infact in the interest of Chinese economy.
The central Asian states, after the independence from USSR, are trying to develop their economies. These states are land locked and Karachi was expected to provide them the services through Afghanistan. For the purpose, a highway from Peshawar to Karachi was constructed but due to Afghan crisis, this line couldn't be established. The Afghan situation is till not clear, so, Gawadar being near to Iranian border will provide port facilities to Central Asia as well.
So it is evident that GWADER and Chahbahar are competitors and their simultaneous existence would reduce Bargaining power of both the countries with economic entities which are interested in trading around this region.This aspect becomes even more significant as Iran is not and never was in good books of Europe and America and with the development of Gwader these regions would't be pressurised to improve relations with Iran and on the other hand due to Gwader,Iran will not be in a position to negotiate with the mentioned regions in a dominant fashion.
Another fact is that Except for Bhutto era,Pakistan was never really close to Islamic countries of Shia Belt (Iran,Iraq,Lebanan etc)and its strategic alliance has always been with Sunni countries like Saudia,Turkey etc so in case of a major strategic issue there is not much historical or sentimental affection to hold back a direct clash.
Lets hope that both of these counties can join together and make a greater use of their strategic location.
What is you opinion?
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Information sources for this post:
Rupee News
Gwader fact sheet
CSS Forum
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