Next six months?(Before june2010 ?)

These days everyone is talking about possible “Major Political Change’ in Pakistan. Analysts are talking about shift of power from presidency to parliament; Shuffling in cabinet due to NRO cases reopening after 28th November. Almost all the political analysts are betting for exit of Asif Ali Zardar by the exception of Nazir Naji and Najam Sethi (who disagree either out of hope! or due to having an insight?).I know it’s always easy to bet against survival of a coalition government but in present situation I think NRO revocation, kickback reports in foreign media for military deals, Anti government vibes coming from local media even though all might be true but have been timed for something bigger and is related to Geo Political and Nuclear significance of Pakistan.

Kickbacks in military deals, corruption in third world countries were never considered unusual but than so was the American involvement in different regions. Apparently Uncle SAM learned it from the failure of Germans and Russians expansion plans that instead of directly ruling the country, rule through its own Military and politicians by keeping them at American payroll.




A very alarming report has come through Dr.Shahid Masood (Meray mutabiq fame).In a recent episode he quoted famous journalist “Seymour Hersh” about presence of American Nuclear security agency on Pakistani soils in spite of so many confirmations through USA foreign office positive statements about Pakistan’s Nuclear Command and Control system’s effectiveness. Considering repute of the journalist (please check a note on him at the end of the blog) let’s assume that American security agency members are actually here but what for? What has changed which made the Americans get closer to Kahoota? Could it be without Military consent? Answer to these and so many other questions are likely to come in the near future and I reckon that it will all be clear before June 2010.Whatever the Americans are up to, either its about Pakistani Denuclearization or restricting Chinese trade through Gwader or both but execution of any anti Pakistani plan cant take place without controlling Army and Political setup. My personal opinion is that under an elected government regime with a balance of power it is not possible so either Americans would keep corrupt political entities in power and try to gain control through them (Rehman Malik’s effort to control ISI by interior ministry) or by supporting such Military elements which don’t retaliate against American interests (Likes of Musharaf).



Under present circumstances it doest seem to be happening through scattered political power and an autonomous Judiciary so the next best alternative is a Caretaker government(based upon technocrats or second line politicians)which would come under the notion “to cover for Political vacuum as a result of corrupt politicians exit(either due to resignation or Assassination). It would last for a period of 2-3 years (enough time to execute American plans i.e. establishing permanent bases in more sensitive and strategic areas and having a share in trade through Gwader)and then leave but I am afraid than there would not be much left to struggle for or to rebuilt.



Please share your opinion about what do you see happening in the next six months. Remember that his blog is a discussion plat form through which we can exchange ideas and opinions. Please extend this address http://inamarif.blogspot.com to your mailing and text lists in order to expand the community.


A note on Seymour Hersh: Seymour "Sy" Hersh made his name and career by reporting in 1969 on the U.S. court martial of Lt. William Calley, the commanding officer in what became known as the My Lai Massacre, an incident in South Vietnam where U.S. soldiers tortured and killed nearly 500 civilians. Hersh won the Pulitzer Prize for the story and became one of the most famous journalists in the country. During the 1970s he reported for The New York Times, creating more controversy with reports on the covert operations of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. Consistently controversial, Hersh has written books that tell of Henry Kissinger's secret bombing of Cambodia, John Kennedy's wild and reckless White House, Israel's behind-the-scenes attempts to get nuclear weapons and General Barry McCaffrey's behavior during the Gulf War. Held in high esteem by many, he is also considered by some to be an unreliable rogue. In 2001 he came under fire by the Pentagon (again) for reporting on military actions in Afghanistan; in 2004 he reported in The New Yorker that Iraqi prisoner abuse at Abu Ghraib jail in Baghdad, which focused initially on low-ranking U.S. soldiers (including Lynndie England), could be traced to orders by Donald Rumsfeld -- orders President George W. Bush had been informed of ahead of time. The White House denied the allegations, and Hersh was himself once more the subject of headlines. In August of 2004 he published the book Chain of Command: The Road From 9/11 to Abu Ghraib, based on his magazine reports.